Real U.S. economic output increased at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The rate of economic growth in the third quarter exceeded the previous quarter, which grew 2.2% after revisions.

In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%. While rates held steady, the two dissenting votes signal that the hawks may prevail over the next several meetings.

The overall message from MTForecast 2026 was clear: Manufacturing remains positioned for growth, and many companies continue to invest accordingly.

Total U.S. industrial production increased in September 2026 to the highest level since December 2018. Capacity utilization is at its highest level since November 2018.

American industrialist Henry Ford once wrote, “The motor enabled machinery to be arranged according to the sequence of work, and that alone has probably doubled the efficiency of industry.”

Total U.S. industrial production was flat in August 2026, and the index for manufacturing decreased by 0.3 percentage points. Capacity utilization among manufacturers also decreased slightly.

For the first time in Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s tenure, the committee voted to raise interest rates by a quarter-point to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% in a move that was all but certain after a flat CPI inflation reading last week.

In his first address as head of the Federal Reserve, Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation back to the 2% target. He also highlighted business capital investment having its highest growth rate since 2021.

Total U.S. industrial production increased 0.2% in July 2026, a slight slowdown from the 0.3% growth in June. While the production of consumer goods contracted in July, it was offset by the rise in industrial equipment, space, and defense production.

See the economic signals shaping manufacturing now and prepare for a deeper look at what’s next at MTForecast.